$TSLA Q2 Earnings Preview

$TSLA Q2 Earnings Preview

by admin 十二月 02, 2019

Event?

TSLAreportstheirfiscalQ2earningsonAugust7thaftertheclose?

Theoptionsmarketisimplyingabouta12。

5%onedaymove,whichisaboveboththe4qtravgofabout11。

25%andthe8qtravgofabout9。

75%。

Sentiment?

WallStreetanalystsaresomewhatpositiveonthestock,with8Buys,3Holdsand3Sells,butthestockhasmovedsoquicklythattheaverage12monthpricetargetofaround$118isactually15%belowthecurrentstockprice?

Thestockhasrisenfromaround$55priortothelastearningsreporttoaround$145today,anincrediblemoveoverthelast3months。

Imamazedthatshortinterestisstillover20%ofthefloat?

HereisthechartoftotalshortinterestinTSLA:

ShortinterestinsharesforTSLA,CourtesyofBloomberg

Soitisnearlyhalfofwhereitwasinthespring,butstillsubstantialgivenhowlargethemovehigherhasbeen。

Holders?

Danhastouchedonthisbefore,butitsworthnotingthatthetop5holdersofthestockownmorethan50%oftheoutstandingstock(allfiguresaccordingtoBloomberg):

ElonMuskowns23。

76%

FMRLLC(Fidelity)owns14。

43%

CapitalGroupowns6。

44%

MorganStanleyowns4。

90%

DaimlerAGowns4。

09%

OptionsOpenInterest?

Openinterestfavorsputsversuscallsbyaratioof1。

5to1,againquiteasurprisegivenhowmuchthestockhasrisenthisyear(upmorethan300%)?

Inthepastmonth,though,callshavebeenslightlymoreactivethanputs?

ThelinesclosetocurrentspotthathavethemostopeninterestaretheAug17th130andAug17th150calls,theAug17th130puts,theSept130callsandSept130puts,theDec135calls,andtheJan14130andJan14140calls?

Thebulkoftheputopeninterestisatmuchlowerstrikes,sotheyremostlyworthless。

PriceAction/Technicals?

TSLAhasnotbreachedits50daymovingaveragesinceitfirstbrokeoutabove$40onApril1st?

Thestockhasbeenstair-steppinghighereversince?

IdiscussedTSLAschartstructure2weeksagoinmyChartoftheDaypost?

Thereweresomesignsofcaution,butthestockhasmadenewall-timehighssincethatpost?

Thedailychart:

TSLAdailychart,50daymainpink,CourtesyofBloomberg

Themid-Julyhighcomesinaround$133,whichisinitialsupport?

Moreimportantsupportisaroundthe50daymovingaverage,whichisrisingandcurrentlyaround$117?

Ofcourse,withthestockatall-timehighs,thereisnoresistanceontheupside。

Fundamentals?

Thisisnotacompanythatsgoingtobevaluedbythemarketontraditionalmetrics?

Investorsarepayingupforthestockbecausetheyviewthetechnologyandtheplatformasrevolutionary?

Whetherthatturnsouttobethecaseremainstobeseen,butthatstherealreasonforthestocksrampthisyear?

Notits$1ofexpectedearningsin2014。

TherealquestionforTSLAisnotonthedemandsideoftheoccasionbutonthesupplyside?

DemandisrobustintheU。

S。

(morethan20kunitsoftheModelSonanannualizedbasis),andgrowthopportunitiesinEuropeandChinaareevident?

TherealkeyiswhetherTSLAcanmeetitsproductiontargetsfortheModelSbytheendof2013。

Thatsobviouslyagreatproblemtohave,andmanyinvestorsareprobablylong-terminnature,confidentinElonMusktofigureitout?

Buttheshorter-termtraderswillwanttoseeresultsthisquarter,particularlygiventhestocksmoveyear-to-date。

Thespeedoftherampupontheproductionsidelikelyhasmoreurgencytodaysincecompetitionissettoincreaseinthecoming18months(BMWnewslastweekwasjustthestart)?

ButTSLAhasbuiltafantasticcar(stellarcustomerreviewsattesttothat),soithasamajorfirstmoveradvantageinthemarketplace。

Volatility?

IV30isnearalltimehighs,whichmakessenseconsideringthemovehigherinthestockbetweenlastearningsreportandthisone:

fromLiveVolPro

Septvolstandsatabout73,andwilllikelygobelow60followingtheevent。

VolinTSLAactuallyusedtoseethe40sandeven30sduringquietperiodsbutthatschangedsinceitbecamesuchastorystock。

Trades?

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