$TSLA Q2 Earnings Preview
Event?
TSLAreportstheirfiscalQ2earningsonAugust7thaftertheclose?
Theoptionsmarketisimplyingabouta12。
5%onedaymove,whichisaboveboththe4qtravgofabout11。
25%andthe8qtravgofabout9。
75%。
Sentiment?
WallStreetanalystsaresomewhatpositiveonthestock,with8Buys,3Holdsand3Sells,butthestockhasmovedsoquicklythattheaverage12monthpricetargetofaround$118isactually15%belowthecurrentstockprice?
Thestockhasrisenfromaround$55priortothelastearningsreporttoaround$145today,anincrediblemoveoverthelast3months。
Imamazedthatshortinterestisstillover20%ofthefloat?
HereisthechartoftotalshortinterestinTSLA:
ShortinterestinsharesforTSLA,CourtesyofBloomberg
Soitisnearlyhalfofwhereitwasinthespring,butstillsubstantialgivenhowlargethemovehigherhasbeen。
Holders?
Danhastouchedonthisbefore,butitsworthnotingthatthetop5holdersofthestockownmorethan50%oftheoutstandingstock(allfiguresaccordingtoBloomberg):
ElonMuskowns23。
76%
FMRLLC(Fidelity)owns14。
43%
CapitalGroupowns6。
44%
MorganStanleyowns4。
90%
DaimlerAGowns4。
09%
OptionsOpenInterest?
Openinterestfavorsputsversuscallsbyaratioof1。
5to1,againquiteasurprisegivenhowmuchthestockhasrisenthisyear(upmorethan300%)?
Inthepastmonth,though,callshavebeenslightlymoreactivethanputs?
ThelinesclosetocurrentspotthathavethemostopeninterestaretheAug17th130andAug17th150calls,theAug17th130puts,theSept130callsandSept130puts,theDec135calls,andtheJan14130andJan14140calls?
Thebulkoftheputopeninterestisatmuchlowerstrikes,sotheyremostlyworthless。
PriceAction/Technicals?
TSLAhasnotbreachedits50daymovingaveragesinceitfirstbrokeoutabove$40onApril1st?
Thestockhasbeenstair-steppinghighereversince?
IdiscussedTSLAschartstructure2weeksagoinmyChartoftheDaypost?
Thereweresomesignsofcaution,butthestockhasmadenewall-timehighssincethatpost?
Thedailychart:
TSLAdailychart,50daymainpink,CourtesyofBloomberg
Themid-Julyhighcomesinaround$133,whichisinitialsupport?
Moreimportantsupportisaroundthe50daymovingaverage,whichisrisingandcurrentlyaround$117?
Ofcourse,withthestockatall-timehighs,thereisnoresistanceontheupside。
Fundamentals?
Thisisnotacompanythatsgoingtobevaluedbythemarketontraditionalmetrics?
Investorsarepayingupforthestockbecausetheyviewthetechnologyandtheplatformasrevolutionary?
Whetherthatturnsouttobethecaseremainstobeseen,butthatstherealreasonforthestocksrampthisyear?
Notits$1ofexpectedearningsin2014。
TherealquestionforTSLAisnotonthedemandsideoftheoccasionbutonthesupplyside?
DemandisrobustintheU。
S。
(morethan20kunitsoftheModelSonanannualizedbasis),andgrowthopportunitiesinEuropeandChinaareevident?
TherealkeyiswhetherTSLAcanmeetitsproductiontargetsfortheModelSbytheendof2013。
Thatsobviouslyagreatproblemtohave,andmanyinvestorsareprobablylong-terminnature,confidentinElonMusktofigureitout?
Buttheshorter-termtraderswillwanttoseeresultsthisquarter,particularlygiventhestocksmoveyear-to-date。
Thespeedoftherampupontheproductionsidelikelyhasmoreurgencytodaysincecompetitionissettoincreaseinthecoming18months(BMWnewslastweekwasjustthestart)?
ButTSLAhasbuiltafantasticcar(stellarcustomerreviewsattesttothat),soithasamajorfirstmoveradvantageinthemarketplace。
Volatility?
IV30isnearalltimehighs,whichmakessenseconsideringthemovehigherinthestockbetweenlastearningsreportandthisone:
fromLiveVolPro
Septvolstandsatabout73,andwilllikelygobelow60followingtheevent。
VolinTSLAactuallyusedtoseethe40sandeven30sduringquietperiodsbutthatschangedsinceitbecamesuchastorystock。
Trades?